Way-Too-Early MLB Free-Agency Predictions Post-2024 Trade Deadline (2024)

Now that the deadline has passed, Major League Baseball's summer trading season is officially over. It won't be until the offseason that player movement picks up again.

From this far out, it's impossible to say with any certainty which free agents are going to sign with which teams and for how much. But since when is that an excuse not to make predictions?

Ahead are way-too-early predictions not just for which teams will sign the top 10 players on the 2024-25 free-agent market, but also for how much money. Though tea leaves were consulted where appropriate, these guesses fall somewhere between educated and wild.

Without further delay, let's count 'em down.

Age: 29

2024 Stats: 79 G, 337 PA, 22 HR, 3 SB, .268 AVG, .353 OBP, .546 SLG

Tyler O'Neill didn't look like a potential top-10 free agent as recently as May, but he's put himself firmly in the conversation more recently.

Since coming off a stint on the IL with knee inflammation on June 5, the slugger has cranked 11 home runs and posted a .955 OPS over 37 games. Among Boston Red Sox hitters, he's second to Rafael Devers in home runs and runs batted in.

However, the two-time Gold Glover seems to have lost his edge in the field, as Outs Above Average has further soured on his defense after grading it as merely average in 2023. As to other warts, O'Neill is striking out in 32.0 percent of his plate appearances.

Yet the 5'11", 200-pounder is legitimately crushing the ball, notably by way of a barrel rate in the 95th percentile. At the least, he'll be a top option for teams in need of power.

Sensible on-paper fits for O'Neill include the Arizona Diamondbacks, Kansas City Royals, Washington Nationals and possibly one of his former clubs, the St. Louis Cardinals. But there's also the reality that the Red Sox can ill afford to lose him.

They would be perilously short on right-handed oomph without him, and it's unsurprising that Fenway Park has been a great fit for his swing. A reunion should be in order, and it should be doable at a Jorge Soler-like rate.

Contract: 3 years, $45 million

Age: 28

2024 Stats: 18 GS, 106.2 IP, 83 H (15 HR), 133 K, 19 BB, 2.95 ERA

The newest member of the Los Angeles Dodgers isn't guaranteed to be around for long.

Jack Flaherty is on a one-year, $14 million deal, and the season he's had points to a bigger payday on the open market. Something in the Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and Eduardo Rodriguez range felt right in June, though nine figures may be doable as well.

Any number of pitching-needy teams could get involved with Flaherty's market at that rate, though it's safe to assume that at least one team that pursued a trade for him will be out.

According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the New York Yankees had a preliminary agreement to acquire Flaherty from the Detroit Tigers, but they backed out over concerns about his medical records. To this end, the back issues he's had this year are no big secret.

Flaherty otherwise had the Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros and Cleveland Guardians and San Diego Padres after him, and the New York Mets speculatively entered the chat after Kodai Senga came off the IL only to get hurt again.

That fit could work even better this winter, when the Mets will have Luis Severino and José Quintana eligible for free agency. Further, Flaherty's excellent K/BB ratio should appeal to them. Their starters are tied for last in that department in 2024.

Contract: 4 years, $68 million

Age: 31

2024 Stats: 107 G, 454 PA, 22 HR, 4 SB, .260 AVG, .327 OBP, .474 SLG

One downside for O'Neill is that he'll be sharing the winter market with a guy who offers a very similar profile.

That's Teoscar Hernández, who is also a bat-first corner outfielder with power from the right side. That much is evident in his 92nd-percentile barrel rate, though cold, hard numbers admittedly aren't as fun as his triumphant Home Run Derby highlights:

Hernández is two years older than O'Neill, his track record figures to be an advantage. Whereas O'Neill's stardom has come and gone, Hernández's has mostly been consistent as he's averaged 32 home runs per 162 games since 2018.

Hernández will have to pull out of the funk that has seen him crank only five homers for the Dodgers dating back to June 12, though. If he does, the contract that he was projected for last winter prior to signing for one year and $23.5 million should be in play.

The same teams that make sense for O'Neill also make sense for Hernández, but I'm going to default to the maximum fun pick with the Nationals.

It's about time Washington spent again, and signing Hernández would be an ideal boost for an offense that ranks last in MLB in homers.

Contract: 4 years, $80 million

Age: 29

2024 Stats: 104 G, 442 PA, 31 HR, 1 SB, .248 AVG, .314 OBP, .534 SLG

No impending free agent has been raising his stock lately as much as Anthony Santander.

He was struggling going into June, having posted only a .712 OPS for the Orioles. He's put up a .973 OPS in 53 games since, with 22 homers to rank ahead of even Aaron Judge.

Between this and Santander being named an All-Star for the first time in July, it no longer feels fair to refer to him as a "sneaky-good" player. He's just plain good, as only he and seven other hitters have at least 90 homers and a 120 OPS+ to show for the last three seasons.

Santander is yet another outfielder whose bat is a lot more appealing than his defense, but he could nonetheless have a shot at the Nick Castellanos route to a nine-figure deal. He was also coming off his age-29 season when he got one, so why not?

Only so many teams could get in on a market like that, but the Nats could be one of them alongside offense-needy contenders such as the Seattle Mariners, Chicago Cubs and the Yankees if they don't retain Juan Soto.

The Mariners would make a lot of sense, as an outfield of Santander, Julio Rodríguez and Randy Arozarena would have legitimate powerhouse potential.

Contract: 5 years, $100 million

Age: 28

2024 Stats: 108 G, 468 PA, 17 HR, 12 SB, .248 AVG, .331 OBP, .432 SLG

Capable two-way shortstops don't grow on trees, and Willy Adames matches that description better than most of his peers.

Only two shortstops have him beat in home runs since he debuted for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2021. It's otherwise at least a misdemeanor that he doesn't have a Gold Glove yet. Since the outset of the 2022 season, he's second among shortstops in Outs Above Average.

Trevor Story and Javier Báez were likewise capable two-way shortstops fresh off their age-28 seasons when they inked six-year, $140 million deals after the 2021 campaign. As such, there's your model for what Adames could be looking for this winter.

If so, the typically thrifty Brewers figure to be out. But even then, his market could include big spenders with needs at shortstop, such as the Dodgers, Atlanta and San Francisco Giants.

Adames got tied to the Giants when they were looking for a shortstop last winter, and it's reasonable to think that search will be back on this winter. That's unless they want to trust in Tyler Fitzgerald's recent breakout, which they shouldn't.

Contract: 6 years, $140 million

Age: 30

2024 Stats: 18 GS, 108.0 IP, 91 H (9 HR), 95 K, 34 BB, 3.08 ERA

This makes it two seasons in a row that Max Fried will have missed time with a forearm injury, as this year's neuritis is coming on the heels of last year's strain.

To his credit, the 30-year-old has been good at bouncing back from injuries throughout his career. And if he does so again with this one, he'll go into the winter with an intact track record as one of the better pitchers of the last half decade.

Since 2020, Fried is the only pitcher in MLB who's made at least 100 starts and racked up an ERA+ over 150. His stuff has been pretty consistent, with his fastball hovering around 94 mph and his curveball limiting hitters to averages in the .100s.

If Carlos Rodón's six-year, $162 million deal with the Yankees is the model for talented yet not always healthy lefties, then so be it. That should be Fried's target.

Freddie Freeman's departure is a warning to Atlanta fans not to put too much hope in a reunion on the open market. Any number of usual-suspect big spenders could get in on Fried, including the Yankees, Dodgers, Giants and Red Sox.

And what about the Texas Rangers? They'll have Max Scherzer coming off their hands this winter, and filling his spot with a younger top-of-the-rotation starter would be a good strategy to keep up with the Mariners and Astros in the AL West.

Contract: 6 years, $170 million

Age: 29

2024 Stats: 108 G, 467 PA, 22 HR, 2 SB, .242 AVG, .323 OBP, .464 SLG

It's not unheard of for a first baseman to sign a $200 million contract. Just since 2010, Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Joey Votto and Miguel Cabrera have all done it.

This may bode well for Pete Alonso and his agent, Scott Boras. Because according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, they plan to seek "at least" $200 million in free agency.

Which is their right, of course, albeit one that should be met with a grain of skepticism. As a middling hitter who doesn't stand out defensively, the slugging Alonso has more in common with Chris Davis than he does with the four names mentioned above.

Yet even if the market also comes to this conclusion, Alonso should still have a shot at the high $100 million range. Only so many teams could get in on him at that price, though it bears noting that the first base-needy Astros have a lot of money coming off their books this winter.

However, it's hard to imagine Alonso actually leaving the Mets.

The lovefest between Alonso, the Mets and the city of New York is a real one, alright.

And Mets owner Steve Cohen legitimately seems interested in keeping Alonso, saying in February that he hopes the two sides will end up "figuring it out," à la Edwin Díaz and Brandon Nimmo.

Contract: 7 years, $189 million

Age: 30

2024 Stats: 104 G, 453 PA, 14 HR, 3 SB, .251 AVG, .311 OBP, .411 SLG

Alex Bregman doesn't have impressive numbers for the season overall, and there's one notable way in which he doesn't look like his usual self.

He walked more often than he struck out between 2018 and 2023, ultimately running a 1.1 BB/K ratio that ranked behind only Soto among qualified hitters. His BB/K ratio is half that at 0.55 this season, and it's mostly because his free passes have dried up.

The plus side is that Bregman's actual chase rate is still in the 78th percentile, and what those overall numbers obscure is how long he's been warm. In 53 games since May 28, he's hitting .293 with 10 of his 14 home runs.

As long as Bregman remains on this track, he's going to enter the market as a legitimate candidate for a $200 million deal. That would limit his market, but some notable teams could be in the mix for a big-ticket third baseman.

The Yankees could use one, as could the Dodgers, Mariners and maybe the Mets and the Nationals if the latter indeed wants to get back in the spending game.

As with Alonso, though, there would seem to be a decent chance of a reunion here. Bregman's swing fits better at Minute Maid Park than it does anywhere else. And as noted earlier, the Astros are slated for a windfall of flexibility this winter.

Contract: 7 years, $210 million

Age: 29

2024 Stats: 22 GS, 138.2 IP, 111 H (15 HR), 128 K, 33 BB, 2.47 ERA

Just as a reminder, the Orioles acquired Corbin Burnes knowing full well that it was going to be next to impossible to extend him.

He had made that quite clear in December 2023:

Several months later, Burnes figures to at least be a finalist for the AL Cy Young Award come the end of 2024. His 2.47 ERA is in line with the figure that won him the NL Cy Young Award in 2021, and his WHIP has fallen from his NL-leading mark of 1.07 from last year.

Because he's a year older now than Gerrit Cole was then, Burnes is probably not going to match the latter's nine-year, $324 million contract. But he should come close.

Though nothing should be ruled out, it feels like a reach to imagine the Yankees adding yet another super-expensive ace to their rotation. And ditto for the Dodgers, who'll have two such aces in 2025 if you count both Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani.

If neither the Yankees nor the Dodgers go all-out for Burnes, there will be that much more of a window for other big spenders like the Mets, Rangers and the pick here to actually sign him: the Red Sox.

There was a time when they were spending about $60 million more than they're spending this year. This winter should be their excuse to get back to those days, as the team they have now looks like an up-and-coming contender worth investing big bucks in.

Contract: 8 years, $288 million

Age: 25

2024 Stats: 106 G, 486 PA, 27 HR, 5 SB, .309 AVG, .436 OBP, .593 SLG

The question is not whether Juan Soto is going to get a record-breaking contract.

He's had his eyes on such a deal since at least 2022, when the Nationals came to him with a $440 million extension offer only to have him turn it down.

Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic reported in April that the industry expectation for Soto's free agency is that the bidding will start at $500 million. That was fair even then, and it was when he was only in the early stages of what could end up being his best season.

The 25-year-old has posted a .300/.400/.500 slash line before, but never in a season in which he had more than 29 homers. He's just two away from that, and eight from his career high of 35.

Though other teams such as the Rangers, Nationals, Giants and Toronto Blue Jays have been floated as fits for Soto, his free agency seems destined to be a New York-based battle between the Yankees and Mets.

Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner may not have helped his cause by whining about "unsustainable" payrolls in May, but there should already be money earmarked for Soto. Given how much the team has coming off its books this winter, it might even be possible to sign him and not have to subsequently live with a skyrocketed payroll.

Besides, just imagine what kind of storm would form over the Bronx if the Yankees went through all this with Soto only to watch him head elsewhere in New York.

Contract: 15 years, $520 million