The Grade 1, $300,000 Del Mar Oaks Presented by Keeneland Sales brings together a pretty nice field of eight fillies running nine furlongs on grass with three last out stakes winners and four others which have won or placed in stakes in one of their last two races. Leading the field in accomplishments is Iscreamuscream, who won the Grade 2 San Clemente Stakes on the Del Mar turf four weeks ago at the shorter distance of one mile. Buchu ships in from New York and won the Grade 2 Appalachian Stakes in May, while Medoro most recently finished third in the San Clemente but prior to that won the Grade 3 Providencia Stakes. Circle of Trust won the Grade 3 Honeymoon Stakes at this distance when last seen in June, beating Sakura Blossom, who had won the Arizona Oaks in March. Whiskey Decision ships in from the east coast and enters the race looking for her fourth consecutive win, the most recent coming in the Christiana Stakes at Delaware Park. Zona Verde was just three-quarters of a length behind Iscreamuscream in the San Clemente and hopes to improve. Sea Dancer is the only horse in the field to have not placed in a stakes race to date, most recently finishing eighth in the San Clemente.
Analysis and main contenders:
Buchu ships in from New York and comes out of the toughest race among this field. Although sixth of nine on July 6 in the Belmont Oaks Invitational, the effort was the best in this group, earning her a 104 Equibase® Speed Figure when beaten four lengths by Cinderella’s Dream, who returned to win the Saratoga Oaks earlier this month. That wasn’t the first time Buchu has broken the 100 speed figure threshold, as she earned a 104 figure when sixth (beaten two lengths) in the Edgewood Stakes in May, and a 106 figure winning the Appalachian Stakes in April. Among the rest of the field, only Circle of Trust (101 in June) and Sea Dancer (100 in March) have earned figures better than 100. Additionally, Belmont Oaks fourth place finisher Pin Up Betty nearly won the Pucker Up Stakes in her next start and the third place finisher from that race, She Feels Pretty, is running in the Lake Placid Stakes at Saratoga this weekend. Jockey Martin Garcia, once a staple on the southern California circuit and now plying his trade mostly in Kentucky, has been aboard for all three wins aboard Buchu and will ride again. Assuming the filly can repeat her effort in the Belmont Oaks in this field, she may be the one to beat.
Medoro won the first four races of her career, including three stakes, culminating with a victory in the Providencia Stakes in April. After three months off she returned in the San Clemente Stakes four weeks ago and finished third but might have run better without traffic trouble. While winner Iscreamuscream was getting a dream trip on the rail, Medoro was boxed in on the far turn and when angled out for room she accelerated nicely but was too late to pass the top two finishers. Jockey Antonio Fresu has been aboard for all five races including four wins and chooses to ride Medoro over Circle of Trust, who he rode to victory in the Honeymoon Stakes in her most recent race. Although her best figure is 94, earned in the San Clemente, she might run a new best in the Del Mar Oaks making her second start off the layoff if she can get a clean trip.
Whiskey Decision is another shipper from the east like Buchu, having last run in Delaware five weeks ago when victorious in the Christiana Stakes with a career-best 95 figure. She picks up top jockey Umberto Rispoli and shoots for her fourth win in a row, with each of the last three decisive as she was in front with an eighth of a mile to go and extended her margin down the stretch.
As to the rest, I’ll start with Circle of Trust. Although she earned a 101 figure winning the Honeymoon Stakes at this distance in June, she has been away the longest of the group and loses the jockey (Fresu) who guided her to victory, to Medoro. Although Gutierrez is a good rider, he is unfamiliar with her, as well as the time off versus others of equal or better caliber is a concern. Iscreamuscream won the San Clemente nicely but as stated earlier she got a dream trip on the rail and although she draws inside today this is a tougher group. The Del Mar Oaks will be her first try past a mile and considering the 96 figure earned in the San Clemente is a bit low compared to what is expected of others, I think she may have her work cut out for her. Zona Verde finished behind Iscreamuscream in the San Clemente with a 95 figure and her last win came in December so although she may hit the board she appears a cut below the top contenders. Sakura Blossom could only manage fourth in the San Clemente with a 91 figure and although second with a 99 figure before that in the Honeymoon is another who appears capable of a minor award at best. Sea Dancer was non-competitive in the Honeymoon when sixth with a 91 figure and ran about the same with an 89 figure when checking in eighth in the San Clemente.
Win contenders, in preference order:
Buchu
Medoro
Whiskey Decision
Trainer Phil Bauer in turf routes: Past three years - 37 starts, nine wins (24%), 14 in the money (38%), +141% return on investment on win bets ($4.82). This applies to Buchu.
